This post attempts to briefly sketch out why and how our
civilisation might collapse over the next couple of centuries. It’s mainly guesswork, but much of it is likely
to be true.
Civilisation stands on the brink of collapse. And what is scary is that so many people
appear to be unaware of this.
Seeing the signs:
The signs are clear enough. Most people are aware that we
are running out of oil, and that we’re a civilisation that is addicted to
oil. And most of us are now aware that
climate change is upon us. And yet, since 1990 (when we became aware of its
seriousness) CO2 emissions have increased by almost 50%. The global community
has made no dent in the inexorable rise in emissions. At some stage the global
community will have to respond, and that will have significant impacts. And the machine of perpetual economic growth is
near its end. The 2007 financial crash
might just have taken us into a world of the flatline. And food? Surely most us must be aware that the
combined Oil, Climate Change, and Financial crises will lead to food shortages?
But what about those ecological and social crises that don’t
reach the daily news? The biodiversity
crisis - for example - that threatens our survival. 200 species disappear every
day; we are in the midst of our planet’s 6th Mass Extinction event.
The first such extinction that has been caused by an individual species; us. Another story is provided by the fact that
antibiotics, which our health service relies upon, are increasingly becoming
ineffective. This coupled with the
deterioration in human auto-immunity suggests that a future epidemic could lead
to millions of people falling ill, and swamping our hospitals. But this might provide respite for another dilemma;
overpopulation. Global population is set
to rise to 10 billion well before the end of this century.
I could have mentioned many other crises; the Energy Crisis,
the Debt Crisis, the Arms Trade Crisis, the Soil Depletion Crisis, the Security
Crisis, the Corruption Crisis, the Income Gap Crisis, the Poverty Crisis, the
Computer Virus Crisis, the Fisheries Crisis.
And I’m sure you will now call to mind a few others that I haven’t
mentioned, because I am confident by now that you have got the picture.
Resources decline:
But I have left the most significant predicament to
last. The Resources Crisis. We are running out of all the resources that
this society has exploited so remorselessly and cheaply in the past to build
the current edifice that we ironically call civilisation. In essence, all the
raw materials like oil, gas, coal, iron, aluminium, copper, tin, silver, nickel,
phosphorus, silica, and rare earth minerals etc. will be become unavailable to
us at some point in the future. The
resources might still be under the ground, but they will be in such small
concentrations that we will not have the energy or the machines to extract
them. And even if we did no-one would have the money to finance it.
"Anyone who
believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a
madman or an economist"
... Kenneth Boulding.
... Kenneth Boulding.
The following chart is from the New Scientist, a few years
back…
Larger version here: http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg
The civilisation that we know today will cease to exist at
some stage in the middle of this century.
But we will start to see clearly the slow decline within the next 2
decades.
The slow decline:
It’s unlikely that civilisation will collapse like a house
of cards. There is still some resilience
in this civilisation. But it will be rocked by successive events from which it
will partially recover, only to be hit again.
It is difficult to predict the next crisis; it might be financial, it
might be energy or climate related. These big events might happen only once
every 5 years or so. But within 20 years, it should be clear to most of us that
a pattern is developing, and it is unlikely that we will return to the easy
comforts we experienced in that period from 1980 to 2005.
At a guess the slow decline will end sometime in the latter
half of this century. During this period
we can expect to see shortages in fuel, food, medicines and consumer items,
increasing queues at shops for essential items, the end of the car, public
transport breakdowns, brownouts, blackouts, breakdown in gas and water
supplies, mass unemployment, hyperinflation, the collapse of national
governmental bodies and the increasing insignificance of money. The National Grid will become unreliable and
break down. Computers and mobile phones will stop working. Such technologies
will be available only to the super-rich.
Even renewable energy will fail
to work without essential rare earth metals.
And all this against a social background of mounting confusion,
anger, lawlessness and violence.
Many of us who campaign for a fairer and more sustainable
world have realised by now that the collapse will have a good outcome in that
the pressure on unstable ecosystems will diminish. Civilisation cannot be changed for the better,
but its damaging progress can be blunted, and if that saves just a few species
it will be worthwhile. A simple way that
anyone can contribute to the slow decline is to stop buying anything that is
not essential. If 10% of us can do this, then civilisation will collapse a
little bit sooner. But most importantly
we will be learning how to live more frugally, which will be very useful in the
times to come.
Many people (me included) will rejoice at the decline of
this civilisation, as we recognise that it has bought us the luxuries of a
comfortable life only at the expense of huge unjustified destruction. But those that enjoy the lifestyle that
civilisation brings will be reluctant to change, and will hang on to its
exploitative nature for as long as possible.
And this will sadly result in lawless violence, as times become even
harder. Our society must anticipate and
prepare for this. If people know what is on the horizon, they are less likely
to resort to the knee-jerk gang culture.
"We act as though
comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need
to make us really happy is something to be enthusiastic about".
.... Charles Kingsley.
The age of salvage:
Well before the end of the 21st century, a new
kind of economy will emerge. Some of the
products of civilisation will survive and remain useful for many years. Hammers, garden forks and other hand tools,
if looked after, will last for a century or so.
Glass will be treasured for its passive solar effect. And there will
always be wood and simple tools to cut and shape it. Traveling quickly will
require the bicycle or the horse. And that limitation of travel will strengthen
communities. For many centuries it might be possible to eke out a peaceful way
of living not unlike the American Indians used to enjoy before the coming of
the white man.
How to respond positively to this:
“Let us put our minds
together to see what life we can make for our children”.
... Chief Sitting Bull
... Chief Sitting Bull
Preparation work for the collapse to come cannot start too
soon. We do not advocate the survivalist
mentality of taking to the hills and stockpiling essential commodities. Quite the opposite. The most important thing is to be fully engaged
in the communities where we live. As
national institutions break down, local forms of organisation will become
crucial. Initially local authorities
will be able to play a useful transitional role in ensuring that people don’t
go hungry, and are secure. And friendly police forces might be needed to deal
with the increasing possibility of violence and lawlessness.
We will need to focus on those things that are essential:
- Wholesome Food.
- Clean Air and Water.
- Shelter.
- Warmth.
- Friends and Conviviality.
- Music and dance.
- Love.
- A Mission.
We will need to acclimatise to a world without non-essential
luxuries. How long will it take us to
realise that we can live quite well without the mobile phone?
Most of us will need to learn new skills, as specialist hi
tech jobs become redundant and pointless.
There are obvious skills like gardening, cooking, sewing, knitting, basic
building, mechanical engineering, caring and the ability to make rudimentary
energy. We will need to recover our
ability for story-telling, because as the old civilisation collapses, we will
want to invent and tell new stories in order to educate ourselves about the new
civilisation to come. We need some
guidebooks for the future.
The Gift Economy will ultimately replace our reliance on Money. Cohesion in our society will inevitably rely
on generosity. The gift economy is about using what gifts we have for the
well-being of our friends in the community.
There are some
things we need to plan for now. In the
immediate future, there will be no cheap fossil fuels. In the long term, even
hi tech renewable energy will not be an option.
The energy future is wood for warmth, intermediate technology and 12
volt electricity. We need to plant
millions of trees now, so that they will be ready for burning in 50 years when
we need them.
Prophesy of Doom?
Of course many people will react to this prognosis with the
view that this is just doom-mongering. But I feel like the doctor who knows
that the patient has got cancer, and believe it’s the responsible choice to
tell the patient the truth, so that he can prepare for the rest of his life
better informed.
